Despite welcome early autumn rain, the nation’s head council for fire and emergency services predicts an increased bushfire risk for the North East and a majority of the state to remain over the next three months.

The Australian and New Zealand Council for fire and emergency services (AFAC) released its autumn seasonal bushfire outlook last week which had most of Victoria under increased risk of fire this autumn.

AFAC CEO Rob Webb said the increased bushfire risk is driven by increased long term dryness and persistent soil moisture deficits.

“Even with the anticipated rains in the southeast in the short term, much more would be required to overcome the long-term moisture deficits," he said.

The outlook is the culmination of a complex analysis by expert fire specialists across Australia, and climate prediction and fire weather experts from the Bureau of Meteorology.

Victoria and the North East is coming off some of the worst fire conditions since the 2019–20 Black Summer.

Mr Webb said the onset of increased fire risk conditions could delay burn-off programs in parts of the country.

The CFA is caution the public ahead of this Labour Day long weekend, particularly around camping and campfires, ensuring they are managed safely and properly extinguished.