THE Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) moved from El Nino WATCH to El Nino ALERT last week, meaning there is around a 70 per cent chance of an El Nino developing this year.
BOM senior climatologist Catherine Ganter said climate models and indicators now meet the Bureau's El Nino ALERT criteria.
"While the models show it's very likely the tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures will reach El Nino levels during winter, we have seen some movement in the atmosphere towards El Nino conditions," Ms Ganter said.
"While our El Nino ALERT criteria have been met, these changes will need to strengthen and sustain themselves over a longer period for us to consider an El Nino event."
El Nino describes changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean that affect global weather and it occurs on average every 3 to 5 years.
"The Bureau's long–range winter forecast is for drier and warmer conditions across almost all of Australia and the climate conditions in the Pacific Ocean are already factored into our forecasts," Ms Ganter said.
"The long–range forecast for winter also shows an increased chance of below average rainfall for almost all of Australia and the move to El Nino ALERT does not change this forecast."
Porepunkah cattle and grape farmer Mick Dalbosco said they will monitor their grape crop and stock levels more closely this season, but so far they haven't made any major changes to their plans due to a potential El Nino.
"Some of those decisions will come later in respect to irrigation, and maybe some fine tuning about how much crop you're intending to ripen," he said.
"In relation to pasture growth, that's a matter of monitoring your stock levels and making sure that you haven't got too many animals on."
